Is China’s Military Really Built for War? New Report Questions Beijing’s Arms Buildup

A recent report from the American think tank RAND Corporation claims that despite extensive modernization efforts, China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might not be prepared for war. The report's authors suggest that the primary focus of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) is maintaining power rather than engaging in military conflict., reports NewsBox.

In recent years, under Xi Jinping's leadership, China has significantly bolstered its military capabilities. Analysts believe the PLA has become a serious competitor to the U.S. military and, in some areas, might even surpass it. Simulations indicate that in the event of a conflict near China's shores—particularly over Taiwan—the U.S. would encounter significant challenges, according to CNN.

However, RAND Corporation's report indicates that political considerations, like the CPC's desire to control both military personnel and society, might negatively affect the PLA’s combat readiness.

"The PLA remains primarily focused on safeguarding the CPC's power rather than preparing for war," writes Timothy Heath, a China expert at RAND Corporation.

He also adds that China's military modernization successes are primarily aimed at enhancing the CPC's authority, thereby reducing the likelihood of war.

As an example of the conflict between political and military goals, Heath notes that up to 40% of the PLA's training time is spent on political indoctrination. He also points out that, in addition to commanders, political commissars are present in PLA units, focusing more on party loyalty than combat effectiveness.

"A divided command structure... reduces commanders' ability to respond flexibly and swiftly to emerging situations," asserts Heath.

The report's author concludes that a war between the U.S. and China is unlikely and recommends that the Pentagon focus on a broader range of threats stemming from China, not just military aspects.

Other experts, however, have expressed doubts about the report's conclusions. They claim that Xi Jinping has clearly identified the reclamation of Taiwan under Beijing’s control, including by force, as a primary military objective. In their view, the strengthening of the PLA's military might shows China's readiness for such a scenario, despite potential issues in domestic control.

Andrew Erickson, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, stated there are simpler and cheaper ways to ensure security than a focused development of military capabilities. John Culver, a former U.S. intelligence officer on East Asia, also expressed skepticism about the report's credibility, noting that while war is not China's priority, it remains a "Plan B" if necessary.